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PPApred aims to federate the research teams of the Department of Animal Health (DSA) involved in statistical and mechanistic epidemiological modelling in order to contribute to improving the prediction of the spread of an epizootic on a national scale, taking the example of African Swine Fever (ASF), particularly at the interface between wildlife (wild boar populations) and industrial or outdoor pig farming, an interface that is still poorly taken into account in the models available for European farming systems (Halasa et al. 2016, Lange et al. 2014, Korennoy et al. 2014, Nigsch et al. 2013, Vergne et al. 2016). The work carried out in the project will aim to :

• T1 – To lead a European methodological network on the issues of prediction of the spread of ASF in the event of an incursion on European territories and possible control measures.
• T2 – Develop prototype predictive models.
• T3 – Organize an international study to predict the spread of ASF.

Website of the challenge: https://www6.inrae.fr/asfchallenge/

BIOEPAR members involved in the project: Pauline Ezanno (pilot), Gaël Beaunée, Sébastien Picault, Mathieu Mancini